Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Israel conducts military strikes on Iranian territory by January 31, 2026. Strikes must be confirmed by credible international news sources. The market resolves NO if no such strikes occur by the deadline.

Background

Israel and Iran fought a 12-day war from June 13-24, 2025, when Israel bombed Iranian military and nuclear facilities in a surprise attack. On January 5, 2026, the Israeli Security Cabinet authorized additional strikes on Iran following Netanyahu/Trump discussions. Netanyahu warned Trump that Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal and nuclear enrichment sites are cause for alarm. Israeli officials view any Iranian effort to rebuild its nuclear or ballistic missile programs as a red line.