Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2029, either the United States or Israel attempts to detonate a nuclear device in an offensive capacity targeting Iranian territory.

Resolution will be based on a combination of the following sources that collectively provide compelling evidence of such an event:

- Official government statements from the US, Israeli, or Iranian governments.

- Credible news reporting from media organizations.

- International bodies' reports, including those from the United Nations, IAEA, or CTBTO.

- Verified scientific data, such as seismic or atmospheric signatures consistent with a nuclear explosion, reported by monitoring agencies or academic institutions.

- Peer-reviewed scientific analyses or technical assessments from research institutions.