Market context

In early January 2026, tensions between the United States and Iran escalated significantly following a wave of nationwide anti-government protests in Iran triggered by a collapse of the rial. President Donald Trump warned on January 2, 2026, that the U.S. would "come to the rescue" and was "locked and loaded" if Iranian security forces used violence against peaceful demonstrators, a threat reinforced by the U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just days prior. These developments follow a June 2025 conflict in which the U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites. Iranian officials, including the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, have accused the U.S. of stoking domestic unrest and warned that any intervention would lead to regional chaos and the destruction of U.S. interests. As of January 7, 2026, the death toll from the protests has risen to at least 36, and Iran’s army chief has threatened preemptive strikes in response to the "threatening rhetoric" from Washington