What are chances that:

• Trump fires Vance

• Trump picks RFK

• Trump wins

Probably small, but nonzero

As good a place as any to bet that JP Mandel will be replaced as the RVeep.

true. here too:

edit: my b wrong market

Add youngkin pls

Trump could swap out disastrous JP Mandel. Trade accordingly.

with who?

please include Tim Walz

Added a couple of names that were >5% on https://manifold.markets/Stralor/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-9d4a78f63ce1 but not listed individually here

Who will be the 2024 Democratic nominee for VP? (Vice President)

Resolves to the person chosen for VICE PRESIDENT by the DNC for the 2024 US Elections, if listed here when chosen. If the answer is unambiguously duplicated, resolves to the version added first. Otherwise OTHER. This is currently set to close at the expected end of the Democratic National Convention in 2024. May adjust if needed. Others in this series: [markets]

I’m looking for a woman in Congress—

Tulsi,

shark teeth,

gray streak

>Creates a new account

>Purchases 100k mana costing $110

>Bets 50k mana on Michelle to 100%

>Investment becomes worthless almost instantly

>Bets remaining 50k mana on Michelle on a different market 10 mins later

>Investment becomes worthless almost instantly

>Balance depleted

>Refuses to elaborate further

Stefanik will campaign for Trump in NH https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/elise-stefanik-to-campaign-with-trump-in-new-hampshire-amid-veepstakes-speculation/ar-AA1n9am8

Also, per Steve Bannon she in at the top of the list https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/shes-a-killer-trump-eyes-rep-elise-stefanik-as-a-potential-vp-pick.html

Kamala Harris shouldn't be higher than Biden is here: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-2024-us-presidential-e?r=Sm9zZXBoTm9vbmFu

@JosephNoonan Buttigieg-Harris ‘24

@Radicalia Do you think that there is even close to a 1% chance of that happening?

@JosephNoonan It’s a joke :-)

👀

I doubt Harris is going to get kept on as VP pick.

@Lorxus Extremely unlikely for Biden to get someone else as his running mate.

@Lorxus would you like to bet on this?

@SemioticRivalry @JosephNoonan heck yeah I would, let's fuckin do this https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/conditional-on-joseph-robinette-bid?r=TG9yeHVz

what’s Mike Pence doing at 13% ?? 👀

the chances of Pence being VP in 2014 are less than him winning the nomination and being elected president. Literally.

How does this work? If I buy ‘other’ (the current options are: Harris, Ramaswamy and other) because I believe Pence will be VP for instance, and later on someone adds him as an option, won’t I lose all my mana?

I'm not clear on the exact details of how this is calculated, but I believe that in the new free-response mechanism, shares in 'other' effectively represent a share in all options that have not yet been added (or, I think equivalently, a mixture of NO shares for all options that have yet been added).

So if you bought 'other' and later someone added 'Pence', your 'other' shares would at that time be turned into a mixture of 'other' shares and shares in the newly-added 'Pence' option.

However, you would be better off adding him as an option yourself if that's what you believe, since that way none of your mana is effectively going to any answers other than Pence that might also be added later.

@Forrest Forrest is correct!

@Forrest True but you don’t get shares for the $25 cost of adding him which is strange. Or at least you didn’t yesterday.