Conditional on Joseph Robinette Biden being the 2024 Dem nominee for president, will Kamala Harris be his running mate? | Manifold

Conditional on Joseph Robinette Biden being the 2024 Dem nominee for president, will Kamala Harris be his running mate?

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Resolves YES if Harris is his running mate.

Resolves NO if he picks someone else.

Resolves NA if he's not the nominee.

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#2024 US Election

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The likelihood of Biden not completing a second term is significant, making the role of the Vice President increasingly critical. I anticipate a strong and influential figure will emerge in this role.

In the FCC filing Biden had Harris listed as VP

@Lorxus I'll place a big limit on yes, what price would you buy?

@SemioticRivalry I'm actually not sure. I think it's likely she'll be the pick, but by no means certain.

I'm poking my brain the best I can this time of day for its true estimate and getting nothing more precise than "somewhere between 60~75%, For Sure™"

If you want a better answer wait until I've slept.

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