Who will be the Democratic nominee for vice president in the 2024 U.S. elections?
Aug 23
Kamala Harris
Josh Shapiro
Roy Cooper
Andy Beshear
Mark Kelly
Gretchen Whitmer
Pete Buttigieg
Nicole Shanahan

Resolves to the person chosen for VICE PRESIDENT by the DNC, if listed here when chosen. If the answer is unambiguously duplicated, resolves to the version added first. Otherwise OTHER.

This is currently set to close at the expected end of the Democratic National Convention in 2024. May adjust if needed.

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Shapiro makes the most sense to me but maybe he's too big a deal to be VP?

absolutely American ticket

Josh wants to be President and winning as VP means he gets there in 8 years. His original plan was running in 2028 after Biden retires and trying to win an open primary. I think if it suddenly becomes a real option to him he'll be smart enough to take the VP slot. Being more or less the front runner in 8 years is safer than being a contender in 4 years and he won't even be 60 in 2032.

Thanks for the liquidity boost @ManifoldPolitics! ❤

DNC is looking like fools! Unite behind Biden and stop the detouring! Ridin' with Biden!!!

Donald Trump
bought Ṁ10 Donald Trump YES

Ok hear me out, Biden is nominated, hires Trump as his Vice President? Did he just slip up and let us in on his plan?

bought Ṁ50 Donald Trump NO

Donald Trump (She/Her)

Brilliant deduction 🤣

12th Amendment

But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

Strictly speaking, the 22nd Amendment only prevents him from being elected president, not necessarily from holding the office. That being said, I’m no expert in constitutional law.

You don't have to be an expert in constitutional law to realize there are 6 republicans on the supreme court.

I hate that that's a good point... I support any president who tries to avoid putting politicians on the supreme court

Kamala Harris

Replacing Harris is potentially one of the few cards Biden can play to shake things up if he trails Trump in late summer. Her favorability rating is very low and this is one way the DNC can affect the race short of replacing Biden. Yes, replacing VP is very rare - FDR was the guy who last did it iirc - but political data isn't that robust anyway given small sample.

@PlainBG The political calculus is a lot more complicated than just, "Replace her with someone more popular and the ticket will do better," though. It would make Biden look bad if he basically said, "Yeah my first VP choice wasn't very good, I'm going to replace her with someone else." And it would potentially anger people who wanted Harris as VP.

@PlasmaBallin Making the change risks making Biden team look desperate, but it could also inject dynamism and unpredictability if they want to make a high risk/reward move. The scenario is predicated on Trump leading the polls in late summer and this being such a high stake election I think it's far from an impossibility.


"Harris did a great job as VP, but the situation in the world is different then when I took office. I felt we needed someone with more X experience to handle X-related issue. That's why I'm proud to announce Not-Harris as my running partner. Harris will still have a place in my administration."

I don't think it's that hard to hand wave the switch if that's what they wanted to do.

@GCS I'm sure the Biden team would come up with ways to explain why they're getting rid of her without just saying, "It's because she was too unpopular," or, "She wasn't a good VP," but I doubt the voters would buy it. And it would, at the very least, probably cause some chaos in the Democratic Party which is the last thing Biden wants.

Raphael Warnock

This is very unlikely, not just because the ticket is almost surely going to be Biden-Harris, but also because making him VP would mean Brian Kemp gets to appoint his replacement. Democrats have a hard enough Senate fight already without giving Republicans a free flip.

Per ChatGPT:

As of my last update in September 2021, there has been no instance in U.S. history where the vice presidential nominee for a second term's election was changed due to circumstances not involving death.

@parhizj I wish people would stop taking AI at its word when it would take a quick look on Wikipedia to disprove it. Abraham Lincoln and Gerald Ford both changed their VP nominee, off the top of my head.

@NcyRocks Thank you for the correction. I don't know where a "quick" look through Wikipedia would find the answer to that question though...

@NcyRocks As for Gerald Ford.... that case doesn't fit the statement I made, as he had only one person he nominated for VP. Reference: Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Gerald_Ford#:~:text=National%20Security%20Advisor.-,Vice%20presidency,wing%2C%20for%20the%20vice%20presidency.

@parhizj I just scrolled down https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States and found out Ulysses Grant changed his nominee too. Ford only ran with one VP nominee (Bob Dole), true, but he also nominated Nelson Rockefeller, who served as VP for his first (and only) term. So he arguably changed his nominee for his second term, though I acknowledge it’s a very different situation.

Unless you meant “changed” as in mid-campaign, in which case I misinterpreted what you meant and you could be right.

@parhizj You could possibly make an argument for Thomas Jefferson, although his second term was the first time there was such a thing as a VP nominee. (And the reasons he didn’t want Burr again did involve death…)

@NcyRocks After many more minutes of googling I did find another good example, FDR. So with Lincoln and FDR I think it's interesting that both of these examples coincided with historically turbulent times...

@parhizj True, FDR had 3 VP nominees. I didn’t bring him up because it wasn’t for his “second” term.