Who will be elected vice-president in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Kamala Harris
Elise Stefanik
Vivek Ramaswamy
Kristi Noem
Tim Scott
Nikki Haley
Tulsi Gabbard
Kari Lake

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US Vice President in the Electoral College, or is selected following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.

May resolve early if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

(In short, this is similar to https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-2024-us-presidential-e, but for the vice presidency)

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bought Ṁ1 of Kari Lake YES
bought Ṁ10 of Kamala Harris NO

@JosephNoonan Buttigieg-Harris ‘24

@Radicalia Do you think that there is even close to a 1% chance of that happening?

@JosephNoonan It’s a joke :-)

bought Ṁ50 of Other YES

I doubt Harris is going to get kept on as VP pick.

bought Ṁ0 of Kamala Harris NO

@Lorxus Extremely unlikely for Biden to get someone else as his running mate.

@Lorxus would you like to bet on this?

what’s Mike Pence doing at 13% ?? 👀

the chances of Pence being VP in 2014 are less than him winning the nomination and being elected president. Literally.

bought Ṁ1 of Other YES

How does this work? If I buy ‘other’ (the current options are: Harris, Ramaswamy and other) because I believe Pence will be VP for instance, and later on someone adds him as an option, won’t I lose all my mana?

I'm not clear on the exact details of how this is calculated, but I believe that in the new free-response mechanism, shares in 'other' effectively represent a share in all options that have not yet been added (or, I think equivalently, a mixture of NO shares for all options that have yet been added).

So if you bought 'other' and later someone added 'Pence', your 'other' shares would at that time be turned into a mixture of 'other' shares and shares in the newly-added 'Pence' option.

However, you would be better off adding him as an option yourself if that's what you believe, since that way none of your mana is effectively going to any answers other than Pence that might also be added later.

@Forrest Forrest is correct!

@Forrest True but you don’t get shares for the $25 cost of adding him which is strange. Or at least you didn’t yesterday.

Vivek 1-5%