Stefanik will campaign for Trump in NH https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/elise-stefanik-to-campaign-with-trump-in-new-hampshire-amid-veepstakes-speculation/ar-AA1n9am8

Also, per Steve Bannon she in at the top of the list https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/shes-a-killer-trump-eyes-rep-elise-stefanik-as-a-potential-vp-pick.html

Kamala Harris shouldn't be higher than Biden is here: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-2024-us-presidential-e?r=Sm9zZXBoTm9vbmFu

@JosephNoonan Buttigieg-Harris ‘24

@Radicalia Do you think that there is even close to a 1% chance of that happening?

@JosephNoonan It’s a joke :-)

I doubt Harris is going to get kept on as VP pick.

@Lorxus Extremely unlikely for Biden to get someone else as his running mate.

@Lorxus would you like to bet on this?

@SemioticRivalry @JosephNoonan heck yeah I would, let's fuckin do this https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/conditional-on-joseph-robinette-bid?r=TG9yeHVz

what’s Mike Pence doing at 13% ?? 👀

the chances of Pence being VP in 2014 are less than him winning the nomination and being elected president. Literally.

How does this work? If I buy ‘other’ (the current options are: Harris, Ramaswamy and other) because I believe Pence will be VP for instance, and later on someone adds him as an option, won’t I lose all my mana?

I'm not clear on the exact details of how this is calculated, but I believe that in the new free-response mechanism, shares in 'other' effectively represent a share in all options that have not yet been added (or, I think equivalently, a mixture of NO shares for all options that have yet been added).

So if you bought 'other' and later someone added 'Pence', your 'other' shares would at that time be turned into a mixture of 'other' shares and shares in the newly-added 'Pence' option.

However, you would be better off adding him as an option yourself if that's what you believe, since that way none of your mana is effectively going to any answers other than Pence that might also be added later.

@Forrest Forrest is correct!

@Forrest True but you don’t get shares for the $25 cost of adding him which is strange. Or at least you didn’t yesterday.

Vivek 1-5%