Who will be elected vice-president in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
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325
Ṁ300k
Jan 1
53%
Tim Walz
44%
JD Vance

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US Vice President in the Electoral College, or is selected following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.

May resolve early if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

(In short, this is similar to https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-2024-us-presidential-e, but for the vice presidency)

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bought Ṁ810 Nicole Shanahan NO

What are chances that:

  • Trump fires Vance

  • Trump picks RFK

  • Trump wins

Probably small, but nonzero

bought Ṁ250 JD Vance NO

As good a place as any to bet that JP Mandel will be replaced as the RVeep.

bought Ṁ25 Mark Kelly YES

true. here too:

edit: my b wrong market

Add youngkin pls

bought Ṁ750 JD Vance NO

Trump could swap out disastrous JP Mandel. Trade accordingly.

opened a Ṁ174 JD Vance YES at 48% order

with who?

please include Tim Walz

Tulsi Gabbard

I’m looking for a woman in Congress—

Tulsi,

shark teeth,

gray streak

boughtṀ50,000Michelle Obama YES

>Creates a new account

>Purchases 100k mana costing $110

>Bets 50k mana on Michelle to 100%

>Investment becomes worthless almost instantly

>Bets remaining 50k mana on Michelle on a different market 10 mins later

>Investment becomes worthless almost instantly

>Balance depleted

>Refuses to elaborate further

@JosephNoonan Buttigieg-Harris ‘24

@Radicalia Do you think that there is even close to a 1% chance of that happening?

@JosephNoonan It’s a joke :-)

👀

I doubt Harris is going to get kept on as VP pick.

@Lorxus Extremely unlikely for Biden to get someone else as his running mate.

@Lorxus would you like to bet on this?

what’s Mike Pence doing at 13% ?? 👀

the chances of Pence being VP in 2014 are less than him winning the nomination and being elected president. Literally.

How does this work? If I buy ‘other’ (the current options are: Harris, Ramaswamy and other) because I believe Pence will be VP for instance, and later on someone adds him as an option, won’t I lose all my mana?

I'm not clear on the exact details of how this is calculated, but I believe that in the new free-response mechanism, shares in 'other' effectively represent a share in all options that have not yet been added (or, I think equivalently, a mixture of NO shares for all options that have yet been added).

So if you bought 'other' and later someone added 'Pence', your 'other' shares would at that time be turned into a mixture of 'other' shares and shares in the newly-added 'Pence' option.

However, you would be better off adding him as an option yourself if that's what you believe, since that way none of your mana is effectively going to any answers other than Pence that might also be added later.

@Forrest Forrest is correct!

@Forrest True but you don’t get shares for the $25 cost of adding him which is strange. Or at least you didn’t yesterday.