This market will resolve at the end of 2050 based on available data and verifiable sources when the following conditions are set for a country:
A distinct region within the country must declare and gain its independence.
At least one other sovereign nation must officially recognize the independence of this region.
The declaration and recognition must occur before the end of 2050.
Market for 2030: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/which-countries-will-have-regions-d
Market for 2100: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/which-countries-will-have-regions-d-8684478bf61d
Update 2024-11-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If multiple regions gain independence during the market period, a single successful independence event is sufficient for a YES resolution
If no regions gain independence during the market period, the market will resolve to NO
1,000
3.00@UnspecifiedPerson I'm not sure what both of you are looking for.
If there are multiple breakaway regions that happen at different times between now and the resolution time, it would be enough for a single regions to do so to resolve to "YES"
I don't have control about how the profit is split. Not sure what you want from me with this question.
If none of these countries have events that count towards resolution, it each will have a "NO".
I have little control about how this will play out in the next 25 years, but if you have suggestions I'm happy to hear them.
@FlorinSays Wait yeah I and unspecifiedperson might've made a mistake, there is an other option but it doesn't have the little disclaimer about new options splitting from it, so this must be an unlinked market
@FlorinSays In a dependent market, there is no option to resolve all outcomes as "No", nor is there an option to resolve multiple outcomes as fully "Yes". If there are breakaway regions from, say, both Russia and China, there will be no way to resolve both as "Yes". At best, you could resolve each as 50%. I would like clarification as to how you intend to resolve the market if there are breakaways from zero or multiple countries/regions.
@TheAllMemeingEye You can see the market type by clicking "See info" in the dropdown menu at the top-right, and this one is a dependent (linked) market, just one without the setting for allowing additional answers to be created, and the "Other" option here is just an ordinary option labeled "Other".
@UnspecifiedPerson Ah thanks, maybe this should be n/a'd then, or switched to asking which will happen first
@TheAllMemeingEye TBH I'm inclined not to do anything after giving this some brain cycles.
My only problem is that it seems like I cannot split the "Other" category, but that will be fine because my intention was to track the most relevant ones.
I'm going to add "Which of these counties" to the title to improve this market.
@FlorinSays isn't the market still linked though? So if multiple countries have successful independence movements, which happens:
Equal probability split
Only first one resolves yes
Market resolves n/a
Somehow you can convert the market to an unlinked one and resolve all applicable yes
@JoshuaWilkes based on the market resolution rules Taiwan will not count, because it already fits the rules when this question was created.
Like it or not, Taiwan behaves as an independent country, the full recognition of independence is just geopolitics at this point. Or the opposite is also very possible, but not part of this market.