Which countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2030?
21
145
แน€1k
2030
23%
Russian Federation
2%
United States of America
4%
People's Republic of China
1.4%
Brazil
6%
India
1.2%
Canada
3%
Spain
14%
United Kingdom
44%
Other

This market will resolve at the end of 2030 based on available data and verifiable sources when the following conditions are set for a country:

  1. A distinct region within the country must declare and gain its independence.

  2. At least one other sovereign nation must officially recognize the independence of this region.

  3. The declaration and recognition must occur before the end of 2030.

Market for 2050: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/which-countries-will-have-regions-d-815607ddcd13

Market for 2100: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/which-countries-will-have-regions-d-8684478bf61d

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If part of a country becomes part of another country, for example Northern Ireland leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland, does this count as declaring independence?

@Kraalnaxx I think this should be included. Because it's a region leaving a bigger country.

@FlorinSays even if no country recognised Northern Ireland independence, including the UK, Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland itself?

@FlorinSays I appreciate you are making a 'spirit of the question' argument, but that's really a different question

@JoshuaWilkes If there are any wholes in the resolution criteria I'd like to solve them fast. Based on previous answers and the resolution criteria, the above will solve itself if Northern Ireland declares and gets recognised independence by at least a country from the UK.

I'm really trying to figure out a way to generate the same resolution criteria for 3 questions that span the whole century. It's not easy.

If you have suggestions, I'm open to them.

@JoshuaWilkes Plus, I'd expect this to be a democratic process (if it happens) so a Norther Ireland independent from the UK and recognised first as independent is quite likely.

@FlorinSays I guess my expectation of what NI leaving the UK and joining ROI would look like is just a bit different. I think if it does happen exactly what has happened will be very clear and it can discussed then.

bought แน€5 of United Kingdom YES

I've included the countries that I believe are most relevant based on size and geopolitical influence. If want some other countries added, let me know. (Preferably while I'm still around)

bought แน€2 of United Kingdom YES

What happens if a region voluntarily is granted independence, like if the Scottish referendum had passed? Just making sure, since that might not be considered โ€œdeclaringโ€ independence.

@Gabrielle I guess there might be democratic and autocratic differences throughout the next ~ 7, 27 and 77 years, but I expect there to be peaceful transitions and less peaceful ones.

If the Scottish referendum had passed, a statement (or similar) of independence would have been passed and recognition would have likely followed from other countries. If this were to happen in one of the questions, that Country will solve as Yes.

If all conditions applied before this Market was created, it will not count. Scotland and Catalan region can still count if they manage the above.

Does it make sense? Should I clarify the description?

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