Will a state declare independence from the USA by 2030?

1kṀ1272

2029

16%

chance

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Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2029, an official declaration of independence from the United States is made by the government of any U.S. state. The declaration must explicitly state the state's intent to secede from the Union or anyway don't recognize the authority of the president of the United States. The resolution will be based on credible news reports from reputable sources such as The New York Times, Reuters, or The Associated Press. If no such declaration is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Update 2025-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies they are aiming for an effective attempt for independence, distinguishing this from what they consider merely vague intent. Regarding a state petition for secession (e.g., to federal authorities):
- Such a petition would need to be ratified (e.g., by those federal authorities).
- If not ratified, the state must then attempt to proceed with independence even without that approval for the market to consider resolving YES.

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My best guesses are Texas might try brute force and California might try with congress senate and president blessing

A petition directed at congress and senate to put the wheels in motion to allow secession doesn't resolve YES. It has to be a unilateral declaration?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'd say it doesn't necessarily need to be unilateral

@SimoneRomeo but would then the petition suffice or would it have to be ratified by senate and congress and signed by POTUS, or is the firm intention publicly expressed key?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen the petition should be rarified, and if it's not, the state should try to proceed even without approval (you can help me define the resolution criteria, but I'm aiming for an effective attempt for independence, not merely vague intent)