See here for context: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63742281

Summary: The SNP have announced plans to fight the next UK general election on the single issue of independence, such that if over 50% of the votes cast in Scotland are for the SNP, that is a mandate for independence. They have said that the full details of how this "de facto referendum" will work will be agreed at a special conference planned in March.

This market is about whether they backtrack on the plan. It's inevitably going to be a little subjective. Ultimately you can think of it as a "Will Fion think they've significantly backtracked on the plan?" and of course I will do my best to be fair.

Things I will count as backtracking:

• Openly admitting that they've changed their mind and there won't be a de facto referendum

• Saying that they just need to win 50% of the seats to "win" the "referendum"

Things I will (probably) not count as backtracking:

• Including the Green Party or the Alba Party, such that to "win" the "referendum" they just need more than 50% of the Scottish votes to be cast for candidates of pro-independence parties

Things I'm not sure about:

• Saying that they need to win 50% of the vote in 50% of the constituencies to "win" the "referendum". I can't actually work out whether this would be easier or harder than 50% overall. Feel free to comment to say whether you think this should count or not. (Best to do so before betting, if you think this is something they'll likely go for.)

I will resolve the market after the special conference finishes. It looks like the date is set for the 19th of March 2025, but obviously I'll move the date if the conference is moved. If the conference is cancelled with no sign of rescheduling I will resolve to N/A.

See here for related markets:

• https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-the-scottish-national-party-ge

• https://manifold.markets/Fion/if-the-scottish-national-party-gets