See here for context: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63742281
Summary: The SNP have announced plans to fight the next UK general election on the single issue of independence, such that if over 50% of the votes cast in Scotland are for the SNP, that is a mandate for independence. They have said that the full details of how this "de facto referendum" will work will be agreed at a special conference planned in March.
This market is about whether they backtrack on the plan. It's inevitably going to be a little subjective. Ultimately you can think of it as a "Will Fion think they've significantly backtracked on the plan?" and of course I will do my best to be fair.
Things I will count as backtracking:
Openly admitting that they've changed their mind and there won't be a de facto referendum
Saying that they just need to win 50% of the seats to "win" the "referendum"
Things I will (probably) not count as backtracking:
Including the Green Party or the Alba Party, such that to "win" the "referendum" they just need more than 50% of the Scottish votes to be cast for candidates of pro-independence parties
Things I'm not sure about:
Saying that they need to win 50% of the vote in 50% of the constituencies to "win" the "referendum". I can't actually work out whether this would be easier or harder than 50% overall. Feel free to comment to say whether you think this should count or not. (Best to do so before betting, if you think this is something they'll likely go for.)
I will resolve the market after the special conference finishes. It looks like the date is set for the 19th of March 2025, but obviously I'll move the date if the conference is moved. If the conference is cancelled with no sign of rescheduling I will resolve to N/A.
See here for related markets:
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 5 | Ṁ9 |
The conference happened on Saturday. I'm planning to resolve YES, but I want to give a chance to persuade me otherwise.
This article is my main source:
Case for YES: "Yousaf clarified that a win in Scotland would be measured in terms of parliamentary seats rather than percentage of votes, and that success would mean yet again pressing whichever party was in Downing Street for the means to hold a second vote"
This seems to pretty much line up with my second bullet in "things I will count as backtracking".
Case against:
apparently the speech was somewhat ambiguous despite this "clarification"
It seems there was no actual decision making at the conference. This was Yousaf stating his preferred option, whereas my market was phrased as "the party". Arguably the party hasn't decided anything. (The linked article suggests this decision will be made at the national party conference in October.)
So I think there's a case for NA (because the convention wasn't a decision making space, which is kind of like not taking place (which I specified would result in NA)) or for leaving the market open and resolving after the party conference (I'd rather not do this; it seems to much against the letter of the market) or for YES, because the leader of the party has clearly backtracked from the previous leader's plan.
I'm not going to resolve NO. For a NO resolution I would have required some kind of reaffirming of Sturgeon's plan, which has definitely not happened.
I'll resolve YES in a day or two unless somebody persuades me that that would be inappropriate.