See this market for more details, and to predict whether the SNP will meet the 50% threshold: https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-the-scottish-national-party-ge

Nicola Sturgeon has been leader of the SNP since shortly after the last independence referendum in 2014. In that time the SNP has had notable electoral success, but has made no concrete progress on their primary objective of Scottish independence. Some may say that Sturgeon's plan for a "de facto referendum" is a risk, since if the result is "no", it's hard to imagine what other avenues Sturgeon could pursue to achieve independence. Others may argue that she is a popular and successful politician and would still be best placed to lead the SNP after such a result.

Edit: resolves to N/A if the SNP gets over 50% of the vote share in the election (in other words if the linked market resolves to YES).

Participants may wish to consider that it's possible the SNP will get less than 50%, but spin this as a success in the "de facto referendum", for example if the total pro-independence parties get more than 50% between them.

Edit 2: It's also possible that the SNP will walk back from their commitment to the "de facto referendum" and will fight the next UK general election in a more "normal" way. This market will still resolve in that eventuality. Make sure you price that in and don't go asking me to N/A it!

Oh, but I guess it will resolve to N/A if Nicola Sturgeon is no longer the leader of the SNP at the time of the election. Thinking of all the edge cases is hard! Feel free to ask in the comments if you can think of others!