Following the UK supreme court's decision that Scotland cannot legislate for an independence referendum without Westminster approval, Scotland's first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has said that the SNP intends to fight the next UK general election on the single issue of independence. The logic is that if over 50% of the Scottish population votes for this single-issue version of the SNP, that will constitute a mandate for Scottish independence.

See here for more detail: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63742281

This market is about whether the SNP manages to meet that 50% target.

I'm hoping resolution should be pretty clear-cut, but please let me know if there are any subtleties you'd like me to clarify.

The SNP haven't fully fleshed out their plan for this "de facto referendum", so it's conceivable they'll add caveats, or seek to include other pro-independence parties or something. This market is not "Will the SNP get a positive result in their de facto referendum"; it's "will the SNP get more than 50% of the vote share in Scotland".

Edit: see here for a market about whether Nicola Sturgeon will resign if the result is less than 50%: https://manifold.markets/Fion/if-the-scottish-national-party-gets