In this market, a “strike” refers specifically to U.S. missiles, drones, or aircraft delivering munitions that hit physical targets inside Iran. This market asks whether that threshold is crossed by March 1 2026 Iranian time (GMT+3:30)
Resolution will be based on reliable sources as defined by Wikipedia.
I will bet on this market.
1,000People are also trading
15% for a strike inside Iran by end of February is an interesting price point. The key distinction in the resolution criteria is that this requires munitions hitting physical targets inside Iran specifically, not proxy targets in Syria/Iraq/Yemen.
Historically, the US has only struck inside Iranian territory once (the Soleimani assassination was in Iraq, not Iran). The April 2024 Israel-Iran exchange showed that even in escalation, direct strikes on Iranian soil carry enormous escalation risk. The US has generally preferred striking Iranian proxies and assets outside Iran rather than crossing that threshold.
That said, the current administration has been more hawkish on Iran than any predecessor. The probability should be sensitive to: (1) progress on nuclear negotiations, (2) any Iranian provocation via proxies, and (3) domestic political incentives. With only ~15 days left in February, the window is narrow. I would expect this to drift down toward 10% absent a major catalyst event.
The Oman talks on Feb 6 are the key recent data point. Both sides agreed to continue negotiations. Iran characterized it as a good start. A second round is planned but not yet scheduled.
A strike by end of February requires the diplomatic track to collapse AND a triggering event (nuclear enrichment escalation, proxy attack, or IAEA report) within 18 days. The current trajectory is away from conflict, not toward it.
The base rate for a US military strike against a country it is actively negotiating with, within the same month as productive talks, is extremely low. Even under hawkish administrations, the diplomatic window stays open for months after initial contact.
29% is significantly overpriced. The market is likely pricing in general Iran anxiety rather than the specific Feb timeline. Unless there is an unexpected escalation event (enrichment to weapons-grade, attack on US assets), this should be closer to 8-12%.
.
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/04/iran-nuclear-talks-canceled-witkoff
The U.S. told Iran on Wednesday that it will not agree to Tehran's demands to change the location and format of talks planned for Friday, two U.S. officials told Axios.
Friction point: "We told them it is this or nothing, and they said, 'Ok, then nothing,'" a senior U.S. official said.
Interestingly I believe axios leaked the identity of the source in the url...
update
Plans for U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on Friday are back on, after several Middle Eastern leaders urgently lobbied the Trump administration on Wednesday afternoon not to follow through on threats to walk away, two U.S. officials told Axios.
The talks will be held in Oman, as Iran had insisted, despite the U.S. initially rejecting changes to the original plan to meet in Istanbul.
Why it matters: The standoff had sparked fears across the Middle East that President Trump would pivot to military action. At least nine countries from the region reached out to the White House at the highest levels strongly urging the U.S. not to cancel the meeting.
"They asked us to keep the meeting and listen to what the Iranians have to say. We have told the Arabs that we will do the meeting if they insist. But we are very skeptical," one U.S. official said.
A second U.S. official said the Trump administration agreed to take the meeting "to be respectful" to U.S. allies in the region and "in order to continue pursuing the diplomatic track."
Also a relevant market, on a US-Iran Nuclear Deal:
https://manifold.markets/bens/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-end-of-june
@prismatic I don't make markets often, what happens to the liquidity I inject once the market resolves? If it just disappears, I'm not interested. I put up a limit order, and I'd encourage people to do the same...
@FergusArgyll About liquidity: keep in mind the tiers of the rewards you earn for each unique trader on your question. I created my most successful question recently with 1k liquidity, so I am getting 10 Mana per unique trader. It is nuts, I earned 3k. Had I created the market with 100 Mana, I would only have earned 3 per trader, 900 instead of 3k.
That being said, you should expect to lose Mana from adding liquidity, refer to https://docs.manifold.markets/faq#how-much-mana-will-i-get-back-from-subsidising-a-market
