MANIFOLD
Will the US strike Iran by the end of February?
1k
Ṁ510Ṁ530k
resolved Feb 28
Resolved
YES

In this market, a “strike” refers specifically to U.S. missiles, drones, or aircraft delivering munitions that hit physical targets inside Iran. This market asks whether that threshold is crossed by March 1 2026 Iranian time (GMT+3:30)

Resolution will be based on reliable sources as defined by Wikipedia.

I will bet on this market.

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🎵 30 days hath September,

April, June, and November.

All the rest have 31,

Except for February, because it's extra fun. 🎵

reposted

I woke up 8:15 to the sounds of sirens and bombing, my first thought was "8000 manna, let's go"


GG folks

US and Israel launch a major attack on Iran.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-explosion-tehran-c2f11247d8a66e36929266f2c557a54c

@FergusArgyll where are you from?

@256 Currently in Israel, I have a flight back to the US in a week & half, I wonder what the odds are there'll be flights then...

Why do I sleep

Of course @sama has the most profit on this market that tracks

YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING ME. I HAD ONE DAY LEFT

sold Ṁ287 YES

I was right.

"The operation was planned over months and the date was set weeks ago" - Israeli security source to Reuters.

Very antisocial hours to declare war smh my head

@TheAllMemeingEye was war actually declared for once?

@AlexanderTheGreater Trump is... errr... not a super clear communicator lol

bought Ṁ1 NO

Huh, I didn't think 100% was even possible here lol

@TheAllMemeingEye yet again, Manifold is great at predicting things as long as the market remains open after the event has occurred in the real world so everyone can trade after the fact!

I love me a good massive hockey stick shaped prediction success!

@Pjfkh paper hands btfo again

Kinda funny in retrospect seeing this headline further down on the BBC homepage

I hate being right

@comicstosteal I hate being right too

bought Ṁ12 NO

Why did this jump? It was Israel that struck Iran, not the US.

bought Ṁ800 YES

@Echale1Palo2Mas3Palo read like three comments down man.

@TiredCliche I'm throwing so hard, you're right

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