Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026?

Question

This is an independent multiple-choice market, multiple options can resolve YES if multiple distinct targets are hit.

U.S. Military Installation or Static Deployment: Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike a manned U.S. base, outpost, or recognized static troop deployment (e.g., Al Asad in Iraq, Tower 22 in Jordan, or THAAD batteries operating in allied nations).

U.S. Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air): Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike, intentionally ram (causing casualties/sinking), or shoot down a manned U.S. warship, logistics vessel, or military aircraft.

U.S. Diplomatic Mission: Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike a recognized U.S. Embassy or Consulate.

U.S. Homeland / Sovereign Territory: Resolves YES if a kinetic attack is successfully executed by recognized Iranian state agents within the 50 U.S. states or official U.S. territories.

No Direct Attack Occurs in 2026: Resolves YES on Jan 1, 2027, if none of the above kinetic thresholds are crossed. (If this resolves YES, all other options resolve NO).

Universal Strict Exclusions (What Resolves NO):

—

The following scenarios strictly do NOT count as a direct attack for any of the options above:

Proxies: Attacks by Iranian-backed militias (e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah, PMF) strictly resolve NO. The U.S. Department of Defense must explicitly confirm that Iranian state personnel (IRGC or Artesh) directly operated the weapon or conducted the assault.

Drones: The shoot-down or destruction of unmanned U.S. assets (e.g., MQ-9 Reapers, surface drones) resolves NO, provided no U.S. personnel are killed or injured.

Electronic: Cyberattacks, electronic jamming, non-lethal maritime harassment, or foiled assassination plots resolve NO.

—

Resolution requires official confirmation from the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. State Department, or a direct claim of responsibility from the Iranian government that aligns with verifiable OSINT (Open Source Intelligence).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Diplomatic Mission, followed by Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air) and Homeland / Sovereign Territory are most likely. See the market for live updates (41 traders, as of Apr 1, 2026).