Will China invade Taiwan in the 2024 October window?
8
25
Ṁ678Ṁ170
Nov 1
2%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There's 2 recognised invasion windows when the seas are calmer and the weather is more suitable to a large scale crossing of the strait of Taiwan. There's the March-May window and the October window. Outside of those times, the invasion is very unlikely to happen.
Will China invade Taiwan in October 2024?
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
The end of year market for this event: https://manifold.markets/JustUltra/will-china-launch-an-attack-on-taiw
Related questions
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
32% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
27% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
25% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
25% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
17% chance
Will China invade or blockade Taiwan by the end 2025?
19% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
17% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
10% chance