Will China launch an attack on Taiwan until the end of 2024?
Basic
7
Ṁ847Dec 31
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
What constitutes an attack and what constitutes Taiwan?
For example: there are various islands in the Taiwan Strait that are disputed, some already under the control of the PRC and some under the control of the ROC. For example: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dadeng_Subdistrict
Would a landing on an unoccupied disputed island by PRC forces be considered an attack on Taiwan?
If not, how big of an attack would count to resolve this YES? For example, if the PRC invaded https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dongding_Island, would that count?
Related questions
Related questions
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will China invade or blockade Taiwan by the end 2024?
5% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
31% chance
Will China launch an attack on Taiwan in 2024?
4% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2024?
3% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
32% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
2% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
32% chance