At the start of 2025, Elon Musk was on good terms with Trump, being appointed to new positions and interacting closely with Trump’s transition team. However, there are reports that he’s facing backlash from Republicans who see him as overstepping or trying to replace Trump, and they have now been fighting on social media. Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?
It does not matter what happens throughout the year, only the state at the end of 2025. Resolves N/A if either of them die before the end of the year, unless I am extremely confident that one party had the other killed (in which case the market would resolve as NO).
Resolves based on my subjective opinion of the news. I aim to be neutral and objective when resolving, but ultimately this will be subjective.
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Elon sitting with Trump during the Charlie Kirk memorial service.
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1969870928352829539
@Blomfilter and the pat on the knee!
https://x.com/niccruzpatane/status/1969873679027761311
Rumors of Elon being snubbed from Melania Trump's AI event in the newly renovated Rose Garden featuring Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, Sergey Brin, and Bill Gates are false according to Elon, who says he was invited and is sending a representative to the event.
https://x.com/AndrewCurran_/status/1963458003824513025
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1963624123998896368
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1952836498971344926
Musk reposting a Trump Truth Social post publicly backing Trump's push to federalize DC.
https://youtu.be/_8ld3a1-XOo?si=MXrjlh6VDQDDhz-e
Donald Trump unusually magnanimous to Elon
https://youtube.com/shorts/Xh7_klzJaLs?si=e8MGe5tKMLeI8HtE
Vance inviting him back into the fold.
https://www.newsweek.com/elon-musk-new-political-america-party-responds-wsj-report-2116148
Reports Musk is 'pumping the brakes' on his third party plans. Elon denied the report: "Nothing @WSJ says should ever be thought of as true" (https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1958063222017446082)
They're at each other's throats again.
@Gabrielle In a hypothetical perfectly neutral case where for the rest of the year Elon doesn't even mention Trump, doesn't tweet anything political, and there's no rumours of discussion or disagreement between him and the administration; and Trump doesn't mention Elon or his companies, and none of his policies are explicitly beneficial or harmful to Elon -
How would this resolve?
@Gabrielle Do you consider them on good terms now? They stopped feuding on Twitter, but as far as I can tell, they're not speaking to one another at all.
Elon also continues to snipe at other people in the administration: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/musk-labels-key-trump-aide-a-snake-white-house-feud-simmers
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'd lean towards NO right now, but I'd need to do more research before deciding for certain. As that article states, Elon is feuding with the Trump administration, and I find it hard to say that he's on good terms with Trump while also feuding with his administration.
What does it mean to be on good terms?
Trump’s publicly signaled that he’s ending things.
Is the market now betting on whether this decision will be reversed by EOY?
@KJW_01294 Correct, it’s about what the state will be at the end of the year, so they can still make up
Possible improvement in relationship
@DozenDucc seems like we are about to have the most stupid debate ever about what "being on good terms" means
@256 I'm neutral. Just bailed on this market. But for kicks, we can start a list.
non-serious - seen holding hands, singing together, skipping in a field.
serious (none seem likely by end of 2025 at this point, but who knows) - joint appearances, Musk wearing Trump or MAGA hat again, Musk announcing renewed contributions, Trump endorsing or expressing appreciation of Musk businesses, dining together, sincere endorsement of each other's social media posts.
@Balasar I don’t particularly want to have to assess that likelihood as part of this market, but if I am extremely confident that one had the other killed then I would resolve NO in that case.