A number of people, including notably Ron DeSantis, have suggested deploying US military forces in Mexico, in particular to combat Mexican drug cartels.
This includes all military operations, whether operating under explicit flags or covert, with or without the permission of the Mexican government. This will resolve on the basis of official statements by the US or Mexican govenments and credible news reports. Reports in question must be publicly available by 2026-01-31, and cover operations conducted before EOY 2025.
Update 2026-01-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator may resolve the market before the January 31, 2026 deadline specified in the original criteria, unless traders object.
1,000People are also trading
@EvanDaniel if the US had conducted military operations I would have expected a press conference declaring america is back etc etc
@EvanDaniel waiting unti the end of the month also seems fine. Im earning interest on this position!
There were US forces there earlier this year for training, but I don't think that meets the intent of an "operation".
For what it is worth, the Mexican President clearly rejected the idea in May.
I suspect there is a very real possibility of covert operations that will remain secret until after this market has resolved.
@LarsOsborne how long do you expect public reports to take? What timeframe(s) for actions and reports would make make an interesting follow-up?
@EvanDaniel Covert operations? Many years, I suspect it would long past when it would be reasonable to resolve this market.
@MalachiteEagle it lets them declare victory without actually carrying out military operations on mexican soil, which i think would be bad (unless mexico specifically requests it of their own accord)
Most of the things discussed here would count. Training alone wouldn't.