https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/mexico-republican-bill-2024-election/674553/

The New Republican Litmus Test Is Very Dangerous

Candidates who do not speculate about war with Mexico may be perceived as weak.

War with Mexico? It’s on the 2024 ballot, at least if you believe the campaign rhetoric of more and more Republican candidates.

In January, two Republican House members introduced a bill to authorize the use of military force inside Mexico. They were not know-nothings from the fringes of the MAGA caucus. One was Dan Crenshaw of Texas, a former Navy Seal who received a master’s degree from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. The other was Mike Waltz of Florida, a former Green Beret who served as the counterterrorism adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney and was a successful entrepreneur before he entered Congress.

This market resolves to YES if at any time by 2027 year end, the U.S. uses military force against the Mexican will in their soverign territory. I'll use the mainstream media and the Wikipedia to help adjudicate. There's a significant burden to something to be a war or war-like, but doesn't require a formal war declaring by the part of the U.S.

I won't bet.