Will SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
30
1kṀ4395
2027
66%
chance

See also: /Alexf3a5/will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la

I will use the same criteria as that market: has a payload been delivered in a way that a customer would be happy with?

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This market is roughly the halfway point for 500 launches by 2030, on an exponential growth market.

I think that makes it somewhat more likely than the linked market; if SpaceX hits 500 launches by 2030, I strongly expect it will look like an exponential path to get there. But it's also plausible they'll have a quick start and then slow down as they hit later sub-exponential constraints like launch sites, demand, regulation, and so on.

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