Resolution criteria

Maduro was arraigned in U.S. federal court on January 5, 2026, with the next court date set for March 17, 2026. This market resolves YES if Maduro is convicted on any of the charges in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York before January 1, 2027. Resolution will be determined by official court records and public announcements from the U.S. Department of Justice or the court. The market resolves NO if Maduro is acquitted, the charges are dismissed, or the trial does not conclude by the deadline.

Background

Maduro faces charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices. The indictment was unsealed after Maduro and his wife were taken into military custody in an overnight operation and brought to the U.S. to face criminal charges. Hugo Carvajal Barrios, Venezuela's former military intelligence chief, pleaded guilty to narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges in June 2025, and Cliver Alcalá Cordones, a Venezuelan general, pleaded guilty in June 2023 to conspiring to provide material support to the FARC—both are positioned to offer testimony against Maduro.

Considerations

Maduro's defense team may argue that he cannot be criminally charged for his actions as Venezuela's head of state. Because Maduro was not extradited through a legal process but rather seized by the U.S. military during a surprise incursion into Caracas, legal experts say this could give the defense team another avenue for a legal challenge. The case could involve a lengthy legal process of pretrial motions, potential plea negotiations, and possibly a jury trial. A conviction within the 12-month timeframe would require rapid resolution of these preliminary legal challenges and completion of trial proceedings.