https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2024/09/07/starliner-lands-in-new-mexico/

It usually pays to bet against Boeing...oh, and also:

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/09/starliners-speaker-began-emitting-strange-sonar-noises-on-saturday/

@EvanDaniel Can you elaborate on what conditions would resolve Yes or No for "Successful reentry and recovery" ? What condition does the recovered craft have to be in to be considered a successful recovery? How bad do things need to go for reentry to be considered not successful?

Good question; my apologies for not replying sooner.

At a minimum:

• If there are crew on board, they make it down alive and without severe injuries.

• The craft is recovered mostly in one piece. Some damage on landing is probably fine, "debris field" definitely isn't.

I'm not sure if it should be stricter than that.

Original plan was "about a week". The intent was to ask whether the stay got cut short; the current planned extension would result in a Yes resolution.

Resolved Yes. As best I can tell, the docking was autonomous and without issue. No rescue scenario or manual control. In general, manual control of the vehicle was "tested", but I've seen no indication that it was required or used for docking, and no other emergency scenarios played out.

In retrospect, it would have been better to clarify in advance how the delay would be counted (they waved off the first attempt at docking and succeeded on the second). It wasn't mentioned, and I think the comment thread implied it wasn't being considered as far enough off-plan to cause a No resolution. Hazards of hastily-written markets, I suppose. I count this as a better outcome than not having the market, so a success on my part, but still with room for improvement.

Only soft capture so far

@Mqrius aiui docking went fine and according to plan, but I must say I didn't keep perfect track. Egress will happen in 1h30 I believe.

@Mqrius That's my impression as well. I haven't seen a specific reference to whether they used autonomous docking or had to do a manual takeover, which I assume means it went to plan and this resolves Yes. I'll dig around for more detailed reports this evening; that's enough time that I'm willing to assume we'd have reports of problems by then. I'll resolve Yes if I can't find any further details.

With autonomous docking and such. If we see something like a rescue and capture using manual flying and/or the Canadarm, this resolves No and "successful docking" resolves Yes.

In an effort to get this live fast, it's fairly light on details. Questions / feedback / suggestions welcome, including for both existing and new answers.