Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2026?

Question

Which of these countries will expand the size of their nuclear stockpile in 2026 (as compared to the 2025 size)?

Based on the first OWID update in 2027 that includes 2026 data. If there is no update, close time may be extended. If Our World in Data is not publishing comparable data (successor pages to the linked one are fine), its sources (Federation of American Scientists, if available) or other credible reporting (if not) will be used instead.

Previously:

@/EvanDaniel/which-countries-will-increase-the-s

@/EvanDaniel/which-countries-will-increase-the-s-ymcrvslwwy

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, China, followed by India and North Korea are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Jul 21, 2026).