Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025?
22
123
Ṁ422Ṁ450
2026
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There are currently several AI-designed drugs in clinical trials, but no AI-designed drug has received FDA approval thus far (see https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02361-0).
This market resolves to YES iff a drug where a signifcant portion of the design was carried out by non-human agents (so not a repurposed drug, but not necessarily a fully generative AI-designed drug either) gains FDA approval by EOY 2025.
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