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Compare with climate change activism, a movement >1000x greater than people concerned about AI alignment. I have a hard time naming a single act of terrorism commited in the name of slowing down climate change, by a reasonable definition of terrorism.

@NiplavYushtun This would resolve YES for climate change, I think, climate activists have been sentenced for terrorism, media have reported activism as terrorism. Perhaps @EsbenKran can confirm.

@NiplavYushtun https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eco-terrorism

@Odoacre True, but there has been remarkably little given how big the movement is. I clicked around to find one clearly motivated by global warming, and https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Luers was the best candidate. (Ted Kaczynski doesn't count, for example, as his motivation was very different).

time decay implies "the market was efficient in the past XOR the market was efficient 1 minute ago"

Seems like a "bomb threat" is a terrorist threat, not a terrorist attack?

"Contrary to popular belief, terror is a very inefficient way of accomplishing ideological goals[...] Violent campaigns in general are great failures. The political scientist Audrey Cronin looked at 457 terrorist groups active since 1968. None of them managed to conquer a state and 94% of them failed to secure even one of their operative goals. The typical terrorist organisation survived for only 8 years - partly because the attacks on civilians alienated the population that the group wanted support from." - Johan Norberg, Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future, 2017

@RobinGreen This is true, certainly, but there's reason to believe that an attack against an AI facility might be- in the minds of the perpetrators at least- less of an attack on civilians to help along a political goal, and more of an assassination attempt against, well, an AI. This being the case, however, it will likely still be reported on as a terrorist attack, thus resolving the market YES

Are they including the ANC and Hamas in that number? Both are terrorist organizations which also got elected into government.

Before 2024? Perhaps...though it seems unlikely. Also, the criteria for resolution are a bit vague IMHO.

"It is reported that someone sends a bomb threat to an AI organization or an AI org. leader"

I feel like this is probably likely for any major company leader, especially of such a controversial company...

Everyone's thinking about AI safety stuff, but some possibilities I'm also thinking about: an angry artist making death threats towards Stability AI personnel, or a civil liberties / anti-cop person throwing paint on people at some Clearview/PD partnership announcement.

I'm assuming those would count, at least if they're charged with terroristic activities / reported on as a terrorist attack.

It is reported that someone puts up a public incitement of violence against an AI org. leader such as a lifesize voodoo dol

Not sure I understand this and how it relates to the question at hand. This sounds like the Question could resolve positive as a result of twitter shitposting

@ElliotDavies Removed this, seemed quite dubious for resolution. Did not want to write direct descriptions of the kinds of terrorist acts.