Resolves to yes if any public media reports a "terrorist attack" in an anti AI interest. Examples of resolution criteria:
It is reported that someone sends a bomb threat to an AI organization or an AI org. leader
It is reported that a terrorist attack was conducted against any AI organization against the idea of AI development
See the related market: Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
Seems like a "bomb threat" is a terrorist threat, not a terrorist attack?
"Contrary to popular belief, terror is a very inefficient way of accomplishing ideological goals[...] Violent campaigns in general are great failures. The political scientist Audrey Cronin looked at 457 terrorist groups active since 1968. None of them managed to conquer a state and 94% of them failed to secure even one of their operative goals. The typical terrorist organisation survived for only 8 years - partly because the attacks on civilians alienated the population that the group wanted support from." - Johan Norberg, Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future, 2017
@RobinGreen This is true, certainly, but there's reason to believe that an attack against an AI facility might be- in the minds of the perpetrators at least- less of an attack on civilians to help along a political goal, and more of an assassination attempt against, well, an AI. This being the case, however, it will likely still be reported on as a terrorist attack, thus resolving the market YES
Before 2024? Perhaps...though it seems unlikely. Also, the criteria for resolution are a bit vague IMHO.
"It is reported that someone sends a bomb threat to an AI organization or an AI org. leader"
I feel like this is probably likely for any major company leader, especially of such a controversial company...
Everyone's thinking about AI safety stuff, but some possibilities I'm also thinking about: an angry artist making death threats towards Stability AI personnel, or a civil liberties / anti-cop person throwing paint on people at some Clearview/PD partnership announcement.
I'm assuming those would count, at least if they're charged with terroristic activities / reported on as a terrorist attack.
It is reported that someone puts up a public incitement of violence against an AI org. leader such as a lifesize voodoo dol
Not sure I understand this and how it relates to the question at hand. This sounds like the Question could resolve positive as a result of twitter shitposting
@ElliotDavies Removed this, seemed quite dubious for resolution. Did not want to write direct descriptions of the kinds of terrorist acts.