Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?
Plus
12
แน2862040
66%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will try to make this criteria as objective as possible:
1) A single significant event would need to have happened (A slow increase in unemployment leading to public backlash would not be sufficient)
2) Public opinion polls are significantly against AI
3) Many governments take action to ban/limit the development and deployment of AI
This would be analogous to Chernobyl leading to the banning of nuclear power in many nations.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
32% chance
Will there be an offensive, ideologically motivated incident against an AI entity in 2024?
23% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
35% chance
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
61% chance
Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
44% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
7% chance
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
30% chance
Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?
29% chance
In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?
72% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?
67% chance