How will we know?

Any of:

• The attitude that we should put up more barriers to market/content creation becomes more official and is strengthened.

• The average time to create a single market goes up (from say 20s to 1m or higher, minimum) via things like required approvals, "seconding" markets, mandatory AI filtering, mandatory "quality assessments", mandatory certifications it's not a duplicate

• The average user account age (or time invested) required to create 1 market, and 10 markets is significantly increased from now. (i.e. rather than being able to register and make a market, there are timeouts like you have to have an account at least 1 day old per market created, or you can't create more than 5 markets until one has resolved)

Or similar. Blocking nasty / porn / racist / etc stuff more than we do now doesn't count. This is more about the attitude that "the average user should be prevented from creating markets unless we approve" is supported at high levels within MM leadership and policy, UNLIKE now and (needless to say) UNLIKE every single damn successful UGC platform in the world:

• twitter

• roblox

• minecraft (can you imagine!)

• flickr

• insta

• youtube

• facebook

• tiktok

• wechat moments

• etc etc

Conversely, this is about manifold becoming more wikipedia like, or similar to stackoverflow

• routinely blasting new attempted creators with negative, judgmental feedback

• brusque attitude towards people who don't know much

• etc

NOTE also that limiting distribution of markets based on user age, quality, past quality, etc is FINE. As long as they're not totally hidden and it's relatively fair to get out of a black hole/distribution limited state.

by end 2024, and for a period of at least 8 days (8*24h) continuously manifold should be in the deletionist/wikipedian style.

I'm not betting here