"Good article" is a technical Wikipedia designation given to articles that meet certain criteria of quality. About 1 in 175 Wikipedia articles have this.
Resolves YES if the Wikipedia page for the Manifold platform reaches "Good article" status anytime before the end of 2024. Resolves NO if it does not reach this status, or if the article is not created by then.
Here is a link to the current draft of the Manifold Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draft:Manifold_(prediction_market)
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Nearly impossible, GA takes between several weeks and a couple months to achieve, and with a significant effort from an experienced editor or two. The fact that Manifold's article does not seem to be in mainspace at all right now, means I'd not put more than 2-5% odds on this
Assuming an experienced wikipedia editor, it's still a week or three of effort away before making it to namespace, once notability is proven. And then another 6-8 weeks of effort, minimum, to get to "Good Article" status. Assuming it'd be eligible at all
@Conflux Can you add the link to the description?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draft:Manifold_(prediction_market)