Mega Chess FIDE ELO Ranking Extravaganza - predict and guess which players will be the best at the start of 2024

How to calculate a player's score at the end of the market?

Top Players (8)

The top 8 players will be resolved 100%

Federation Leaders: (20 places)

If someone is the highest ranking player in their federation, they get at least 50%.

1. If they are also top8 they use up the fed leader spot and get 100% anyway.

2. If they're not top8 but are the top plates in their federation, and there were <20 federations appearing above them, then they get 50%.

The first 20 federation leaders will be given 50%; however, if they are also top 8 they'll be at 100% anyway so it won't matter for them.

For example imagine all top 8 players were Australian. If so, the first one would be fed leader but would still score 100% because of top 8. The next 7 also would get 100% for top 8. So far one fed leader spot was used. Then we would continue to player 9, 10 etc. Any new fed appearing would get fed leader's 50% until we had seen 20 federations in total including Australia. In the end in this case there would be at most 27 total players with score >50%.

Another case: if all top 8 are from different countries then there could not be more than 20 players >0%.

Others:

The other players will resolve 0%

Answers:

I will enter the top 50 players now, and then add more players who appear in the top 50. I am limited to 100 live answers at a time, so can't put them all. If I need extra space, I will NA the lowest valued answer players to make room; if that happens to your player, I may bring them back later by knocking someone else out.

If you want to bet on someone who's not an answer yet, comment the name and I'll add them.

NOTE:

The market closes Jan 10 2024 midnight California time.

BUT It resolves based on the FIDE list as of Jan 13, 2024, 12 noon California time.

So you have some time during which you cannot trade, but where the value of your holdings will change.

I will be betting here to give liquidity, as I think the market outcome is totally deterministic.

We use the ratings at http://ratings.fide.com/ or best substitute if that is unavailable.

UPDATES:

As of now, Dec 10. the final scores would look like this:

Use this spreadsheet - it has the accurate formulas for scoring:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OtF

UPDATE: Closing soon, please let me know if there's something wrong with the sheet & current scores.

Also, please vote here: /Ernie/how-should-i-run-the-fide-ratings-c