Predict top 8 FIDE Chess rankings at the start of 2024 - almost done, come vote on next version!
40
1.2K
8.7K
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
YES
Carlsen, Magnus - NOR
Resolved
YES
Caruana, Fabiano - USA
Resolved
YES
Ding, Liren - CHN
Resolved
YES
Nakamura, Hikaru - USA
Resolved
YES
Firouzja, Alireza - FRA
Resolved
YES
Nepomniachtchi, Ian - RUS
Resolved
YES
So, Wesley - USA
Resolved
YES
Dominguez Perez, Leinier
Resolved
50%
Giri, Anish - NED
Resolved
50%
Rapport, Richard - ROU
Resolved
50%
Anand, Viswanathan - IND
Resolved
50%
Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar - AZE
Resolved
50%
Maghsoodloo, Parham
Resolved
50%
Le, Quang Liem - VIE
Resolved
50%
Duda, Jan-Krzysztof - POL
Resolved
50%
Topalov, Veselin - BUL
Resolved
50%
Abdusattorov, Nodirbek - UZB
Resolved
50%
Keymer, Vincent - GER
Resolved
50%
Sjugirov, Sanan
Resolved
50%
Eljanov, Pavel

Mega Chess FIDE ELO Ranking Extravaganza - predict and guess which players will be the best at the start of 2024

How to calculate a player's score at the end of the market?

Top Players (8)

The top 8 players will be resolved 100%

Federation Leaders: (20 places)

If someone is the highest ranking player in their federation, they get at least 50%.

  1. If they are also top8 they use up the fed leader spot and get 100% anyway.

  2. If they're not top8 but are the top plates in their federation, and there were <20 federations appearing above them, then they get 50%.

The first 20 federation leaders will be given 50%; however, if they are also top 8 they'll be at 100% anyway so it won't matter for them.

For example imagine all top 8 players were Australian. If so, the first one would be fed leader but would still score 100% because of top 8. The next 7 also would get 100% for top 8. So far one fed leader spot was used. Then we would continue to player 9, 10 etc. Any new fed appearing would get fed leader's 50% until we had seen 20 federations in total including Australia. In the end in this case there would be at most 27 total players with score >50%.

Another case: if all top 8 are from different countries then there could not be more than 20 players >0%.

Others:

The other players will resolve 0%

Answers:

I will enter the top 50 players now, and then add more players who appear in the top 50. I am limited to 100 live answers at a time, so can't put them all. If I need extra space, I will NA the lowest valued answer players to make room; if that happens to your player, I may bring them back later by knocking someone else out.

If you want to bet on someone who's not an answer yet, comment the name and I'll add them.

NOTE:

The market closes Jan 10 2024 midnight California time.

BUT It resolves based on the FIDE list as of Jan 13, 2024, 12 noon California time.

So you have some time during which you cannot trade, but where the value of your holdings will change.

I will be betting here to give liquidity, as I think the market outcome is totally deterministic.

We use the ratings at http://ratings.fide.com/ or best substitute if that is unavailable.

UPDATES:

As of now, Dec 10. the final scores would look like this:

Use this spreadsheet - it has the accurate formulas for scoring:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OtF

UPDATE: Closing soon, please let me know if there's something wrong with the sheet & current scores.

Also, please vote here: /Ernie/how-should-i-run-the-fide-ratings-c

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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Participants, can you give me feedback? I have a couple of ideas for later rounds. Here are my plans, please indicate yes/no for each?

/Ernie/how-should-i-run-the-fide-ratings-c

^^^^Please join and vote, thanks guys! Appreciate you all participating.

All: I am planning to resolve soon based on the spreadsheet, which I've updated with today's ratings. Is that okay? Please let me know.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OtF4TIW18IaLHxoBmy6WVhMGXoYN8aJc1gZPJpYYFn4/edit#gid=0

Resolves @Ernie

@strutheo thanks, that's my job for today

The January rating list is published!

Which markets are actually close? I haven't been following

Hey guys, once this gets resolved I'd like to run another one. If you have any feedback please let me know. The next round may run for 6 months or a year.

I want more ideas that will make it really fun

@Ernie for next year I may do fun things like:

  • Still have top10

  • And country leader

  • But also have decade and birth year leader

  • And also have monthly scoring too so if a player does something good during a month he gets a score which will carry on

@Ernie I think it is a fun concept, but maybe it's better to have this monthly or bi monthly, rather than 6/12 months. You can iterate on format more quickly and also people might be more willing to bet if they won't have mana locked up for a year.

[Deleted]

@AmadeoBordiga no. Imagine if all too eight were from one country. Top 8 would pay out, then the next 19 country leaders would pay out too.

In the sheet there lookslike 22 places paid right now, is that what you see?

@Ernie Hm, I see. I relied on the screenshot which you updated, which seems to have 20 players paid and the one after that (Sindarov) marked.

@AmadeoBordiga ah, the screen wasn't tall enough to see all the entries. If you clock the link you can see that there were two more down below.

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sold Ṁ13 of Saric, Ivan CRO YES

Could you add Fedoseev? :)

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Another question on scoring:

Let’s say 6 of the top 8 are unique federations. Does this mean that there will be 14 players who receive 50% plus the top 8 receiving 100%? Or will 28 players receive at least 50% (meaning the top 20 unique federation players outside the top 8 receive 50%)? The scoring spreadsheet seems to have some players who are not in the top 20 receiving 50%

@benshindel thanks for looking into that. you're right, I was always awarding fedlead rather than just to the top20. I've fixed the sheet.

@Ernie tbh I read „Federation Leaders: (20 places)“ as „there are 20 places that will be awarded to federation leaders specifically” and I think this is the straightforward interpretation, on which I also based some of my previous trades. Or am I missing something?

@AmadeoBordiga no, because it says very clearly "they get at least 50%." If there were 20 places specifically for federation leaders, then it would just say "they get 50%." At least implies that some of them will be in the top 8, getting 100%.

@AmadeoBordiga yes, I have this section: "Hikaru is the 2nd American to appear, so he gets no marks for Federation Leader. But that's okay, because he is already 100% for being in the top 8." to show what happens here. Being one of the first 20 federation leaders counts, but if you are already top 8, you are already 100%, so no effect. But it still takes up the slot.

sold Ṁ9 of Grandelius, Nils YES

@Ernie Alright, thanks for clarifying!

bought Ṁ30 of Sarana, Alexey - SRB NO

@Ernie I guess I have to ask again before sinking more money into this market, sorry :D

Just like in the fixed sheet, exactly 20 players will get a payout overall. Correct?

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