Background

Chess ratings are updated monthly by FIDE (International Chess Federation). As of January 2025, Magnus Carlsen has dominated the top spot for over a decade, though Gukesh Dommaraju has shown remarkable progress recently, becoming World Chess Champion and making significant rating gains in 2024.

Resolution Criteria

• This market will resolve based on the official FIDE rating list published for January 2027 (which reflects ratings as of December 31, 2026)

• In case of a tie for the highest rating, all tied players will resolve equally (i.e. 50/50 if the top two are tied)

• If FIDE changes its rating calculation system before the end of 2026, the market will still resolve based on the official FIDE ratings under the new system

• If FIDE ceases to publish ratings, the market will resolve based on the most widely recognized equivalent rating system.

  • I will not count ratings for chess variants, but may count ratings for online chess or faster chess formats if they are the most widely recognized.

Considerations

• Historical precedent suggests rating changes at the top level tend to be gradual, but breakthrough performances in major tournaments can lead to significant rating gains

• Players may strategically choose their tournament schedule to protect or maximize their rating

• Players who are inactive for long periods of time are not added to the rating list.