Hey all!
This market is just closing now:
/Ernie/predict-top-8-fide-chess-rankings-a
It was pretty fun for me to make and run. I'm thinking about running more like this.
For me, when a big tournament is on (Tata Steel, Candidate's Tournament, World Championship) I usually watch the match reviews on youtube from the streamers there. I was thinking it would be fun to bet on some things that might happen in the game. I also like Eric Rosen and his interest in arcana/kaballistic style "imputing meaning to random things in a game" where he gets a bit excited about pawn cubes, connect 5 etc.
And I also like complex interlocking rulesets like the scoring for this market.
But, I wanted you guys opinions too! So I made this "fake poll"
There are lots of options, and you can add optinos too! (and gain mana if people bet!)
I can't force you to do this, but I am asking:
please only bet 10m for each entry, one time, YES or NO to move the number towards your preferred direction (i.e. if you think 80% and it's at 30%, bet YES; if you think 80% and it's at 90%, bet NO).
I will resolve all NA so you'll get the money back in a week anyway
I just want to know people's opinions and about you and what you'd like to experiment with!
Also, if you have other ideas, add them in comments or as market options! It's fun to get the notifs and free mana.
Also, I think MC markets are the future of manifold
This market runs a week, then I'll review the answers and close. Thanks for sharing! Also obviously if you have crazy chess friends who would like this, share it with them. My dream is to get one of these markets (either FIDE ratings, or "weird board things") actually reviewed on one of the channels I like, maybe just as a fun thing, or at least mentioned on this site, for example: https://rosen-score.vercel.app/
I think markets for end of June and end of December would be fun! I think I took like 80% of the profit from the ratings market because I follow professional chess a little too much, and I think the slightly confusing format worked a lot in my favor.
I’d recommend adding a couple other conditions, like say “top 10 resolve to 100, top 20 countries resolve to 50, top 5 biggest rating earners resolve to 50, players who won tournaments with average ratings of 2700 resolve to 50…” or something like this
I think long term markets make the most sense, I don't think there's enough time for the short term markets to work all that well, there's just not that much movement in placements every month. I think sports markets also prove that long term markets work pretty well for this kind of thing, with there being an abundance of markets tied to each season. As someone who is only somewhat invested in chess (I could probably name 25 grandmasters but I don't really know about what tournaments are going on beyond when gothamchess is covering them), I don't feel all that capable of betting on short term elo markets beyond when there's just a bunch of free mana I can pick up, which is what I did with the last one. I feel like it'd be better to have short term chess markets be more specific questions (like specific tournament results or answering a particular question), while questions with more moving parts and with more options like predicting FIDE ranking movements fit a longer timeframe better.
@FreshFrier yeah, that makes a lot of sense. I'd initially thought the rating list updated more often. Over 6 months or even longer it would be pretty interesting, as a way to evaluate an individual's progression.
I wish there were a combination of the two, where you could play in a market over 3-10 years, but holding winning options would also throw off cash as you went along.