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MANIFOLD
Who will be the top 10 Chess players at the end of 2026?
32
Ṁ2.1kṀ9.3k
Dec 31
98.3%
Magnus Carlsen
96%
Hikaru Nakamura
94%
Fabiano Caruana
90%
Javokhir Sindarov
79%
Vincent Keymer
74%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
67%
Anish Giri
65%
Arjun Erigaisi
64%
Wesley So
58%
Alireza Firouzja
55%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
51%
Wei Yi
9%
Hans Moke Nieman
8%
Viswanathan Anand
7%
Ding Liren
5%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
5%
Richard Rapport
4%
Leinier Dominguez Perez
3%
Gukesh Dommaraju
3%
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on FIDE's monthly published "Top 100 Players" list for classical chess. The resolution will use the first official FIDE rating list published in 2027.

Each answer resolves YES if that player appears in the top 10 of the FIDE classical ratings at that time, and NO otherwise. Only active players (as per FIDE's definition) will be considered. Check the official FIDE ratings at https://ratings.fide.com

Background

FIDE governs international chess competition and publishes monthly rankings of the top 100 players based on classical time control ratings. The Elo rating system is used.

Considerations

Rankings fluctuate monthly based on classical tournament results. Players may take extended breaks from competition, affecting their rating trajectory. Sites like https://2700chess.com/ compute "live ratings" which are an indication of how players are performing in between official ratings lists.

Answers were seeded with top 20 at market creation. I will bet on this market.

Market context
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Added Javokhir Sindarov (currently #11 on the live ratings after an amazing performance at Tata Steel)