Who will be the top 10 Chess players at the end of 2026?
11
2kṀ1886
2026
95%
Magnus Carlsen
92%
Fabiano Caruana
90%
Hikaru Nakamura
74%
Vincent Keymer
72%
Arjun Erigaisi
72%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
63%
Anish Giri
55%
Wei Yi
54%
Gukesh Dommaraju
52%
Wesley So
50%
Alireza Firouzja
47%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
31%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
28%
Richard Rapport
26%
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
26%
Leinier Dominguez Perez
23%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
21%
Viswanathan Anand
21%
Ding Liren
19%
Hans Moke Nieman

Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on FIDE's monthly published "Top 100 Players" list for classical chess. The resolution will use the first official FIDE rating list published in 2027.

Each answer resolves YES if that player appears in the top 10 of the FIDE classical ratings at that time, and NO otherwise. Only active players (as per FIDE's definition) will be considered. Check the official FIDE ratings at https://ratings.fide.com

Background

FIDE governs international chess competition and publishes monthly rankings of the top 100 players based on classical time control ratings. The Elo rating system is used.

Considerations

Rankings fluctuate monthly based on classical tournament results. Players may take extended breaks from competition, affecting their rating trajectory.

Answers were seeded with top 20 at market creation. I will bet on this market.

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