Based on western media reports. YES if this is confirmed any time through EOY 2031. They must be cumulative 100k at one time, not 10k/year for 10 years which each individually go elsewhere or return before EOY. This is about the total refugees in the US being at least 100k at a point in time.

They must be people who were citizens of Taiwan as of 2023 or later (before the initiation of any war/conflict between the countries). They must have reached US territory (mainland, ak/hi, or other controlled territory such as guam, military bases, or other land which is controlled by the US) any time (separately or together) through the due date. i.e. they cannot be Thai refugees which pass through Taiwan on the way to the US.

There must have been at least 100k of them. They must be actively fleeing something such that it's reasonable to consider them refugees. Fleeing upon threat of war, even without any actual war action, can count. For example, if 100k Taiwanese get on flights to the US despite not having Visas, it would count.

However if 100k Taiwanese students on legal visas end up overstaying because they are afraid to return, that would not count. The reason to make this distinction is that I want to use "recent movement" as a clear signal of being a type of refugee. So they should be people who are plausibly leaving Taiwan to get away from something, towards the US.

It doesn't have to be fleeing from war, it can be a disease or something else, too.