Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?
Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?
5
100Ṁ90
2030
68%
chance

The United States Department of Defense publishes military personnel numbers by country on a quarterly basis (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec). See the "Active Duty" columns in the spreadsheets that are linked under the "Military and Civilian Personnel by Service/Agency by State/Country (Updated Quarterly)" section.

This question will use "Active Duty" numbers reported in Taiwan from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) for its count of "soldiers" in Taiwan. If the number is 100 or more, this question resolves YES, otherwise resolving NO on 1 Jan 2030.

The US DoD has stationed 10s of soldiers at most in the last several years. For example, here are the September active-duty totals for Taiwan since 2016:

  • Sep 2023: 39

  • Sep 2022: 23

  • Sep 2021: 39

  • Sep 2020: 18

  • Sep 2019: 8

  • Sep 2018: 7

  • Sep 2017: 10

  • Sep 2016: 9

If geopolitical tensions rise between China and Taiwan, the US may choose to substantially increase the number of active-duty personnel stationed on the island.

Will the US station 500 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?

In the event that the DMDC fails to report soldier counts for Taiwan (as it has done in the past for Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria), I will resolve this question according to the best available news reporting. If DMDC counts are available, and there is no strong reason to distrust the totals being reported, I will defer to those numbers to resolve this question.

See also:

US Politics
Wars
Geopolitics
China
Taiwan
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