China returns at least 100 American citizens to US custody seized from Taiwan through 2027 | Manifold

China returns at least 100 American citizens to US custody seized from Taiwan through 2027

5

Ṁ110Ṁ135

2028

46%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

They must be seized by China within the 2023 Taiwan borders

They must be returned to the US or us ally custody, out of PRC control

They can be returned as a group or individually or in smaller groups. As long as the total is at least 100

EDIT, June 2024: if no invasion happens, or nobody is seized at all by end, then this is NO. This is just about whether this kind of event happens.

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Sorry is this conditional on seizure? If there is no seizure by 2027, how does this resolve?

@24a yes this is attempting to track something that night happen after an invasion or attack

@Ernie So if there are no US citizens seized, is this a ‘no’ or a ‘n/a’?

@24a it'd be NO.

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Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

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Related questions

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

Will the US hold at least 100 Chinese POW through 2029

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At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031

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