China returns at least 100 American citizens to US custody seized from Taiwan through 2027
4
110Ṁ1252028
40%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
They must be seized by China within the 2023 Taiwan borders
They must be returned to the US or us ally custody, out of PRC control
They can be returned as a group or individually or in smaller groups. As long as the total is at least 100
EDIT, June 2024: if no invasion happens, or nobody is seized at all by end, then this is NO. This is just about whether this kind of event happens.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US hold at least 100 Chinese POW through 2029
31% chance
Will the PRC hold at least 100 American POW, ever, through 2029
19% chance
At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031
31% chance
Will the US accuse the PRC of putting Taiwanese people into Concentration Camps any time through 2028?
35% chance
At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037
38% chance
Will the US evacuate its citizens from Taiwan before Dec 2027?
33% chance
USA will advise all American citizens to leave Taiwan anytime through 2032
54% chance
USA expels at least five Chinese diplomats within 7 days anytime til end 2031
52% chance
At least 2m Taiwanese citizens are physically relocated to the mainland by the PRC through 2033
14% chance
Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?
68% chance