This is a market for the NonRival forecasting newsletter question for 5 Feb 2023. I'll resolve the market the same way they do. They say, "The question will resolve based on Beyond Meat's Q1 financial data, reported in April 2023."
The NonRival post is at: https://open.substack.com/pub/nonrival/p/is-fake-meat-a-fad?r=f99ku&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
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Graph over time: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BYND/beyond-meat/revenue
I think the "quarterly" row is the one relevant to this market.
They haven't released their 1st quarter results yet. They released their third-quarter results on 9 Nov (1 month and 9 days after the end of the quarter) and their fourth-quarter results on 23 Feb. (2 months and 23 days after the quarter's end). So, I'll extend this market for two weeks and make myself a reminder to check and try to resolve this market every two weeks starting a month from now.
@EricMoyer Re-opened - they still haven't released their results. I need to make a subsidiary market: when will Beyond Meat Release their Q1 Results.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/bynd/earnings
Earnings announcement* for BYND: May 10, 2023
*The upcoming earnings date is derived from an algorithm based on a company's historical reporting dates. It is possible that this date will be updated in the future, once the company announces the actual date.
Beyond meat 4th quarter earnings (from 23 Feb): https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2022-financial
Summary (copied from the above link):
Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Highlights1
Net revenues were $79.9 million, a decrease of 20.6% year-over-year.
Gross profit was a loss of $2.9 million, or a gross margin of -3.7% of net revenues.
Net loss was $66.9 million, or $1.05 per common share. Net loss as a percentage of net revenues was -83.6%.
Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $56.5 million, or -70.7% of net revenues.
@EricMoyer Also looking at their 4th quarter earnings, they predict an annual revenue of "$375 million to $415 million". I think this implies a quarterly revenue of $88.75 million to $108.75 million, which is above the $85 million threshold in the question.
(Note: I quartered the center of the interval of course to make $395M/4 = $98.75M, but I only halved its length instead of quartered it, so $40M -> $20M, because of the effect where the sum of n iid random variables has standard deviation ~sqrt(n).)
@duck_master That's a good observation.
It assumes that all quarters contribute equally. The macro-trends link you put above indicates their revenue is seasonal, with the June 30 quarter being significantly higher than the March 31st quarter for the last three years. But this is alleviated somewhat because March is usually their second-highest quarter. So, it's more likely to be above the "all quarters are equal" estimate.
I think the chance of a Yes is higher than I did when I made this market. To be below 85, it will need a 22% drop year-over-year. And the last two quarters were a 21.7% drop and a 20.79% drop, respectively.
OTOH, I still want to factor in my perception that they have an inferior beef replacement. (My family tried both Impossible and Beyond patties for a while, but Impossible was the clear winner. And when we go to fast food joints, I push for Burger King so I can order their Impossible Whopper.) I'm not sure whether I want to sell yet, but I'm definitely considering it.