This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 30% probability.
It’s been a hell of a few years for Beyond Meat. Six years ago, its flagship Beyond Burger made plant-based meat cool, and its stock market debut in 2019 was the strongest-performing IPO since 2008.
As of mid-December, its stock price is half of its $25 IPO, and just 6 percent of its $235 high in July 2019. Beyond Meat’s sales have fallen sharply — a 13 percent decline in pounds of plant-based meat sold in this year’s third quarter compared to last year’s. And it has accrued a mountain of debt, due in part to its big plant-based jerky launch, which underperformed expectations. It has also launched a range of other products in the last year, including steak tips, new kinds of chicken, and at least nine distinct products for restaurant partnerships.
Beyond Meat isn’t alone in its struggles; the whole plant-based meat sector is down. To course-correct, the company recently laid off 19 percent of its staff and told investors it plans to get back to basics, with a focus on growing its core offerings: sausages, burgers, and beef. It may also benefit from a recent contraction in competition and slowing inflation.
That could all help its stock price rise, but financial analysts are skeptical a short-term turnaround is possible. The mean price analysts predict for the end of 2023 ranges from $10 to $16, with the highest at $32.
(Vox)
Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
Related questions
@StevenK The only explanation I've found is the one I quoted above.
At a guess, the "formulation" issue might be that it's unclear if the prediction is about whether the price at the end of the year would be over $30 or about whether the price will ever go above $30 during 2023, but neither of those things happened.
One of the authors of the prediction articles, @DylanMatthews, has a Manifold account, though! Maybe he can weigh in?