How many House seats will the GOP lose in 2026?
9
1kṀ5902026
11%
seat gain
14%
0-10
13%
11-20 seats
15%
21-30 seats
17%
31-40 seats
29%
41+ seats
Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The baseline for this market will be the number of House seats held by the GOP on December 31, 2025.
Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The final count of GOP House seats will be based on the count of newly elected representatives from the 2026 general election.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
How many House seats will the Democrats win in 2026?
What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms
How many house seats will Democrats flip before the 2026 midterms?
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
24% chance
Republicans have House majority after 2026 midterms?
22% chance
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
72% chance
How many Republican Representatives will Texas elect in 2026?
Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
39% chance
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
80% chance
Sort by:
@EnopoletusHarding And the final is the count of newly elected representatives? (As opposed to those still serving their terms as of December 31, 2026.) When / how is the new count determined?
Basically I'm trying to understand how this market will handle retirement, resignation, death, elections that are slow to determine a winner, and so on.
People are also trading
Related questions
How many House seats will the Democrats win in 2026?
What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms
How many house seats will Democrats flip before the 2026 midterms?
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
24% chance
Republicans have House majority after 2026 midterms?
22% chance
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
72% chance
How many Republican Representatives will Texas elect in 2026?
Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
39% chance
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
80% chance