Moods in the society suprise me again and again. Yabloko was initially allowed into elections, got massive support from young people, and even now there still are individual candidates from Yabloko even though the party list was rejected.
Blocks of everything in internet, blocks for VPN connections on major Russian platforms, whitelists, full shutdowns. Ukrainian strikes on oil and marketplaces, gas shortages. Speeches of before apolitical or pro Putin people. All that is more than I expected.
Recently even some my pro war relatives said they are gonna vote against United Russia, even though they all voted pro Putin on last war time elections. This surprised me completely.
I now don't know what to expect of those new elections. I expect there is some probability there may be some major disruptions, because of mass anti war moods.
Related existing markets (so probably don't need adding here):
https://manifold.markets/RealAP/will-united-russia-gain-or-loose-se?r=RW5pU2Np
(between this and next may be discrepancy, it seems to me, one for >324 has less than one for >326, though I am not sure)
https://manifold.markets/psIyncU/will-united-russia-get-more-seats-i?r=RW5pU2Np
https://manifold.markets/Jack1/which-party-will-win-the-2026-russi
1,000People are also trading
Not sure how to resolve yabloko. In many places they weren't votable. But it isn't a no. Though not quite a yes. Maybe I should resolve to %. But it seems to gonna be much lower than 97%, if I understand correctly. People seem to not have been betting about that. Though I am not sure I should take that into account, because of looping inference.
I now think that what if there were like 5 yabloko candictes in whole country? It isn't actually a yes as i meant it. But it isn't actually a no. One option is resolving to a percent. But it was "are" question, not % question. But in fact for many regions yabloko candidates weren't votable, many regions had them in the voting list, just with a pen line over it. So it doesn't seem as a clear yes either.