Will Putin flee Russia in 2026?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ491
2027
3%
chance

Resolves YES if Putin leaves Russia, under circumstances that can reasonably be considered 'fleeing' (not a normal diplomatic visit, ongoing power struggle, alternate leader in place in Moscow etc)

Otherwise resolves NO

  • Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there are multiple Putin impersonators or body doubles, the market will resolve based on the real Putin's actions, not those of any impersonators.

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What If only one or 2 of Putins flee?

Official impersonators of Putin:

https://manifold.markets/Areal/will-no-foreign-leader-claim-by-31?r=QXJlYWw

@Alva as best we can, the real putin is what determines this

@Ernie so one would be enoughI believe

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