How Long Will Trump Go To Jail?
8
240Ṁ6392027
96%
< 1 year (includes 0 time)
1%
< 5 years
0.5%
< 10 years
0.6%
< 20 years
0.6%
< 30 years
1.1%
50+ years
Based on time sentenced.
Resolves on initial sentencing announcement (all counts combined), without waiting for appeals.
Resolves to < 1 year if not sentenced by the end of 2026.
Resolves to the lowest valid bracket. So a sentence of 9 years would resolve to < 10.
A sentence of home detention without actual jail time would fall under the [< 1 year] option.
'Trump' in this market refers to Donald Trump, the former President of the United States of America. That won't change if he becomes President again.
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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