Will a malaria vaccine be deployed to >1M humans in 2023-2024?
9
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210
2025
94%
chance

Nov 17, 2:44pm: Will a malaria vaccine be deployed to >1M humans before 2025? → Will a malaria vaccine be deployed to >1M humans in 2023-2024?

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-recommends-malaria-vaccine-roll-out-early-2024-some-african-countries-2023-10-02/

WHO is recommending a second vaccine called R21/Matrix-M to prevent malaria in children at risk of the disease

...

Adar Poonawalla, CEO of Serum Institute of India, said it had already produced more than 20 million doses in anticipation of WHO's recommendation.

"We will ramp it up as per what the demand requirements are," he said in an interview. "We hope that by the end of 2024, there will be zero mismatch of demand and supply, with our supply coming into the system."

predicts YES

The R21/Matrix-M vaccine has been licensed by regulators in Ghana for children aged five to 36 months — the group at highest risk of death from malaria. It is the first country to approve the jab.

https://archive.ph/gazNT

bought Ṁ100 of YES

https://www.who.int/news/item/21-04-2022-over-1-million-african-children-protected-by-first-malaria-vaccine

As World Malaria Day approaches, more than 1 million children in Ghana, Kenya and Malawi have received one or more doses of the world’s first malaria vaccine, thanks to a pilot programme coordinated by WHO. The malaria vaccine pilots, first launched by the Government of Malawi in April 2019, have shown that the RTS,S/AS01 (RTS,S) vaccine is safe and feasible to deliver, and that it substantially reduces deadly severe malaria.

These findings paved the way for the historic October 2021 WHO recommendation for the expanded use of RTS,S among children living in settings with moderate to high malaria transmission. If widely deployed, WHO estimates that the vaccine could save the lives of an additional 40 000 to 80 000 African children each year.

I'm quite confident that the trend will continue during 2023 and 2024.

I will give tips for good data provided in comments.

I definitely accept feedback on the question's wording and market description.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@o The WHO World Malaria Report would be a good source to resolve this (albeit published with some delay)

https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/reports/world-malaria-report-2021