Neuralink clinical trials: will someone be seriously injured or killed? | Manifold

Neuralink clinical trials: will someone be seriously injured or killed?

33

1kṀ5717

2030

8%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves positive 1 month after a credible news report of serious injury or death.

Resolves negative when the clinical trials finish.

Resolves ambiguous if trials are stopped early.

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The trial seems to be ongoing, I will extend the resolution date

If someone dies but the consensus is that the death was completely unrelated to the procedure (e.g. homicide), does that count as YES for this market?

I'd also like an answer for this - @ElliotDavies can you please confirm

@12c498e @shankypanky No - the death needs to be plausibly a result of Neuralink

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Related questions

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Neuralink: How many years between medical and non-medical applications with widespread availability?

Will Neuralink be used for reparative therapy before the end of 2035?

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Will there be more than 200 people with a neuralink by August 2027?

When will be the first year that 10,000 people receive Neuralink brain implants?

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

100+ people regain mobility using a Neuralink device by mid 2027

Will I personally know someone with a Neuralink or other brain chip implant by the end of 2032?

Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?

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