100+ people regain mobility using a Neuralink device by mid 2027
3
Ṁ90
2027
47%
chance

It becomes reasonable to believe that by end of claim, at least 100 people internationally have had movement problems due to spine damage, etc will regain some level of movement via a Neuralink device.

It has to be via their normal neurons, just patched or fixed, or by bridging a gap. i.e. their spinal cord is damaged, and something from Neuralink finds a way to transmit the signals across the gap.

Things like using Neuralink to measure their neural impulses from the brain and then transmit them to mechanical parts which help the person move wouldn't for this market. This can YES any time before 6/30/2027, and NO after if no proof can be found.

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Things like using Neuralink to measure their neural impulses from the brain and then transmit them to mechanical parts which help the person move wouldn't for this market.

Why not?

That isn't particularly a neuralink invention. I think there are already cyborg-like systems. For example, the recent patient who uses Neuralink to control a mouse so he can play video games - if we hooked that output up to an exoskeleton, he would be able to move. But I don't think that would really be said to "cure" people who are paralyzed. So this market is more about whether something a bit closer to an apparent "fix" can happen; the patient would we able to solve the problem with their own muscles, which now would be able to receive and send the impulses they are trying to.