Bet on how well you know your friends!
Each listed user gets to pick a percentage to resolve their answer to. I'm not resolving any of them until 72 hours have passed from the creation of this market, in case there are immediate changes. If the user won't say how to resolve theirs within 1 week after that, then I'll resolve it N/A.
You can bet on all the other users and also yourself. I will consider adding you if I know you and you ask.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ69 | |
| 2 | Ṁ60 | |
| 3 | Ṁ49 | |
| 4 | Ṁ27 | |
| 5 | Ṁ27 |
People are also trading
@SG I picked some of the most vocal opponents of the 'original' loan+interest plan for this market and somehow in the end nearly everyone resolved over 50%. I think that means you made good decisions in altering the plan over the ~week after the initial announcement. Nice job!
@nikki @Bayesian @121 @HillaryClinton
Last call to resolve your answers, I'll be marking the rest N/A in about 10-12 hours otherwise.
Those of you who have not yet resolved, the deadline is roughly 24 hours from now, otherwise your option will resolve N/A:
@Tripping
@Eliza I'm going with 50%. It's a lot better than when it launched, but the whole thing was done a bit carelessly, and it's still a little buggy and not great in terms of UX. I'm glad they dropped the idea of paying out interest though. Thanks!
@Eliza I guess 80%? I don't think it's been communicated well and the implementation has been haphazard, but I guess in the end things are better than they were before?
Is this based on the original announced system that prompted this market, or the one we’ve landed at after changes?
If the former, 10%. If the latter, i guess 25%? Preserving daily loans was a big priority for me but i think interest payments are extrmeley silly and the margin loan system is unnecessary and there seems to have been lots of bugs in implementation and all of it is a step back from the old system.
@Ziddletwix It's based on whatever your satisfaction level is with the system at the time you resolve your option. I think there are a little less than 48 hours until you're supposed to have a final decision.
(And you can resolve now if you want.)
i think interest payments are extrmeley silly
FYI, Interest payments have been turned off for a few days now. I don't think everyone noticed because it was just an update to the Post rather than a new Post.
@Eliza hmmmm i would consider that a positive change but such a major change being made via silent update to an old post (i have been less active but still checiking the site many times per day and had no idea) is not ideal! seems like a wash. so will resolve it to 25% for the reasons above (meaning I failed to profit on my own opinion RIP)
I have some conflicting thoughts here that I'm still sorting out. Mostly I like the new system.
The daily loans are probably a bit worse than the old ones (I certainly get less per day under the new system than the old one), and I'm not totally clear on the math (despite being able to look at the code), but they're still an option and that's good. The margin loans are not really applicable for me right now, but they're conceptually really nice and I haven't heard any complaints about them from people who they are applicable for.
One weird thing is that you're able to get loans up to your net worth, which can be manipulated, but on the other hand you can only get loans on markets that are listed, ranked, older than 24 hours, and have at least 10 traders. That 10 trader limit can potentially be really impactful, and it's something that users will need to watch out for.
I also really like the effort that has been put in to making the loans legible. On the loan screen I can see the amount that I can be loaned total and how much I've been loaned. On the profile screen I can see how much loan I have for every position (I'm not sure when that was introduced).
However, I'd really like some better UI in being able to understand the math for how much I will be loaned in the daily loan. Right now the loan page implies that I can get M$384,719 - M$337,840 = M$46,879 more loaned back to me, and that I'll get 1% of that per day (so M$468) or maybe 1% of my position total (1% * M$153,238 = M$1,532), but instead I'm getting M$122 mana per day, and I have zero clue where that comes from. I'm guessing it involves subtracting out the positions that I can't get a loan on (unranked, less than 10 traders, etc.), but 🤷♀ extremely unclear.
Like it's simpler in theory, but in practice I have no idea how to figure it out, and I'm looking at the code!
I think the things that would fix it for me are:
On the loan screen, I can see "You have a total of X mana available in free loans, you'll get Y today because of Z"
On my profile page I can see which of my positions are eligible or not eligible for loans
For my positions that are eligible for loans, I can see the total amount that can be loaned to me, and how close I am to that limit. Ideally I can see how much I will actually get back.
I'm pretty sure this is all stuff I could calculate now, which is great, but I'd be sitting down and thinking about all these pieces for a while to figure it out The fact that effort has been put in to making it legible though is really good though, and it makes me more favorable about the system overall.
On the subject of interest, I'm glad it was removed. While it's a nice concept, it's not what Manifold needs and it could really hurt the mana economy in the long run.
@Gabrielle If it's less than (loans + invested) * 0.01, it's because of the loan restrictions:
ranked
10+ traders
>24 hours
< 5% NW