Bet on how well you know your friends!
Each listed user gets to pick a percentage to resolve their answer to. I'm not resolving any of them until 72 hours have passed from the creation of this market, in case there are immediate changes. If the user won't say how to resolve theirs within 1 week after that, then I'll resolve it N/A.
You can bet on all the other users and also yourself. I will consider adding you if I know you and you ask.
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@Eliza Is our percentage supposed to be based on what we thought of the original margin-only loan system, or should we consider the new system released today?
@xjp It will be based on how you think of it at the time your answer resolves. We're just hitting the 72 hour mark now, so you can choose to resolve your answer right now or at any time within the next 7 days from ~now.
@nikki "loans based on loaned mana" do you just mean max leverage was higher than 2x? Or are you talking about loan system + p2p loans?
Things I like:
having interest at all
margin loans available in useful size at sane interest rate
AMMs get interest (Does this work sanely? When does it get applied? This might be more neutral depending on details. Probably lower importance than the others, should maybe just be removed.)
Things I dislike / would want fixed / brought back:
Free daily loans with a large enough cap that they act as a multiplier on daily bonuses, for accounts likely to care about said bonuses. (Daily loan amount of something like min(M100, .01 * eligible investment balance) would probably be sufficient for this. Maybe even as low as M50.)
Some amount of free margin / reduced capitalization requirements to increase open interest / velocity of money, or any non-zero amount of math/data to explain why my intuition that this helps Manifold is wrong. I assume that, if the mechanism is daily loans, this implies a cap higher than the "daily bonus multiplier" implies.
Interest should be compounded, paid in the asset held, without weird epicycles.
Interest should apply to balances in addition to investments. I think. Still open to hearing arguments, but nothing I've seen addresses the Goodhart problem here.
Free daily loans used to be a way to deal with negative risk / cash equivalent positions (yes in all or multiple no on multiple choice markets). Or at least mitigate them. I (my bot) now have positions I literally can't exit. Needs explicit handling, a return to generous free daily loans, or a fix to the multibet / limit order ineraction + a way to multisell in equal amounts.
Margin loans feel like a weird hack of epicycles built on top of the daily loans system; having them have a per-market element is wonky and adds user complexity to no discernable purpose.
Margin limits feel weirdly low, hacked together, and inconsistent -- are they 2x, 1.5x, 1.33x, or something else? Broken math in the announcement does not inspire confidence. Consistency and a tiny bit of documentation would help. This is probably the least important point here, maybe doesn't rise to the level that it should be on this list.
@EvanDaniel In broad strokes, I think a system that has all three mechanisms (interest, margin loans with interest on demand at reasonable size, and rate-limited and capped free daily loans) is potentially really great and improvement over the status quo ante. I think all three things play well together, and can help with Manifold's stated goals.
I think increased volume of mana sales is a worthy goal, but mostly I think these changes are indirect ways to accomplish that goal, and if I was trying to make changes to explicitly hit that goal I would start by ignoring this piece of Manifold economics. I'm mostly trying to judge the system based on what I think will be healthy for Manifold long term, which is related to but not quite the same as what I personally want for my trading experience or what I'm guessing the typical user or (potentially) paying user wants.
I must be had at Manifold. I struggle these days finding markets where I have sufficient confidence and that are deep enough to absorb sufficient investments. I used to be short on Mana and now over a third of my worth is in cash. Last thing I need is a loan. I might feel encouraged though to park the money in some boring market
@BlackCrusade I am only betting a moderate amount on myself. If someone wanted to convince me that I misunderstand the system and there aren't situations where your interest could exceed the total value of your bet I'd be willing to pretend to listen.
@Jack1 I am totally buying Yes shares. Just 72 hours to convince you to buy some mana!
(Turns out I already did.)
@No_uh i wrote my quick (albeit long) reply in the other thread but i was clear the whole time i will be against anything involving removing daily loans and replacing them with interest payments. interest payments are a dead end and a very bad idea for the site. i will wait to hear arguments to pick my % but it's a safe bet it'll be low