This market predicts whether the federal workforce (excluding Postal Service workers) will be increased to above 2.35 million employees by March 31, 2026.

According to BLS data from August 2025, federal government employment has declined by 97,000 since January 2025, with continued cuts each month. As of June 2025, there were 2.35 million federal government workers excluding Postal Service employees, down from approximately 2.4 million at the start of 2025.

The Trump administration, through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, has targeted significant reductions in the federal workforce, with Ramaswamy previously stating a goal of cutting 75% of federal employees.

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to YES if official BLS or OPM data shows the federal workforce (excluding USPS employees) is above 2.35 million as of March 31, 2026. It will resolve to NO if the workforce remains at or above 2.35 million. Data source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm or equivalent OPM data.

Access Denied

Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if the BLS CES series “All Employees, Federal, Except U.S. Postal Service” (Series ID: CES9091100001, seasonally adjusted) is strictly greater than 2,350.0 (thousands) for March 2030. Resolves NO if it is 2,350.0 or lower. Source to check: FRED series page and BLS Table B‑1a. (fred.stlouisfed.org)

• We will use the first BLS release for the March 2030 observation (preliminary is fine) and ignore later revisions. If CES9091100001 is unavailable, we will compute “Federal, except USPS” as CES9091000001 − CES9091912001 (both seasonally adjusted) for March 2030. Backup sources: FRED pages for CES9091000001 and CES9091912001. (fred.stlouisfed.org)

Background

• The CES payroll survey counts employees on establishment payrolls during the pay period that includes the 12th of the month; government employment covers only civilian workers. This is the standard basis for the series above. (bls.gov)

• As a reference point, the March 2025–August 2025 path for CES9091100001 fell from 2,392.7 to 2,325.0 million (SA). Traders can monitor current levels here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091100001. (fred.stlouisfed.org)

Considerations

• Decennial Census hiring typically boosts “Federal, except USPS” temporarily; this effect was pronounced in prior census years and could matter in early 2030. (fredblog.stlouisfed.org)

• Because CES uses the mid‑month pay period, the metric is effectively a March 2030 monthly reading rather than a literal March 31 headcount. (bls.gov)

• For convenience, BLS also publishes the relevant line in its monthly Table B‑1a (Seasonally adjusted), where “Federal, except U.S. Postal Service” appears directly. (bls.gov)