Resolution: Resolves according to the number listed in FRED (CES9091000001) for December 2026 (Seasonally Adjusted). Context: As of November 2025, FRED lists 2,744,000 employees. Details: If the reported figure is exactly between two buckets, it resolves to the higher bucket. I've included a reasonable range of buckets + "Other"—I can expand with other buckets if they seem relevant.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2,500,000 - 2,600,000, followed by 2,700,000 - 2,800,000 and 2,600,000 - 2,700,000 are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Nov 10, 2026).

Federal employees at EOY 2026?

MANIFOLD

Federal employees at EOY 2026?

Ṁ1kṀ3.1k

Dec 31

2,400,000 - 2,500,000

34%

2,500,000 - 2,600,000

16%

2,600,000 - 2,700,000

21%

2,700,000 - 2,800,000

2,800,000 - 2,900,000

2,900,000 - 3,000,000

Other

Resolution: Resolves according to the number listed in FRED (CES9091000001) for December 2026 (Seasonally Adjusted).

Context: As of November 2025, FRED lists 2,744,000 employees.

Details:

If the reported figure is exactly between two buckets, it resolves to the higher bucket.
I've included a reasonable range of buckets + "Other"—I can expand with other buckets if they seem relevant.

Get

1,000

to start trading!