Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the seasonally adjusted U.S. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) drops below 61.5% (i.e., is reported as 61.4% or lower) for any monthly reporting period in the calendar year 2026 (January 2026 through December 2026). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly "Employment Situation" report. Specifically, this is the seasonally adjusted series LNS11300000, which can also be tracked on FRED under the series name CIVPART.

• Revisions: The market will resolve based on the values published for each month of 2026 as of the release of the December 2026 data (typically published in early January 2027), including any retroactive revisions to the 2026 months published up to that date. Any subsequent revisions published after January 31, 2027, will be ignored.

Background

The Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate measures the percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 and older that is either working or actively looking for work.

In early 2026, the seasonally adjusted LFPR has shown a steady downward trajectory:

• January 2026: 62.1%

• February 2026: 62.0%

• March 2026: 61.9%

• April 2026: 61.8%

This market tracks whether this downward trend will cross below the 61.5% threshold before the end of the year.

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