Resolution criteria

Resolves based on US total nonfarm payroll employment (BLS Current Employment Statistics, series CES0000000001 / FRED PAYEMS), seasonally adjusted, for the December 2030 reference month — the figure as first reported in the BLS Employment Situation release in early January 2031.

Background

• As of May 2026, U.S. total nonfarm payrolls stood at 159,001,000 (159.00 million) seasonally adjusted jobs.

• The PAYEMS series is based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) establishment survey, which surveys approximately 119,000 businesses and government agencies each month, representing about 622,000 individual worksites. It excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, agricultural workers, and the unincorporated self-employed — roughly 80% of the workers who contribute to GDP.

• For reference, the CBO's February 2026 Outlook implies roughly 161–162 million payrolls by December 2030 (a demographics-driven baseline of ~0.3–0.5%/yr), while AI-displacement scenarios from the Metaculus Labor Automation Hub run lower — about 157 million on the community view and ~155 million in the bear case. Long-run employment levels reflect demographic shifts, economic cycles, productivity trends, and the labor-market impact of emerging technologies.